Workflow Economics · The 2026 Crossing · Medtech Capital Equipment

When does the displacement ratio cross 1.0?

An interactive calculator for medtech quote-cycle work. Adjust the variables; watch the curve. The 1.0 threshold is where AI-augmented economics overtake human-only execution. Different workflows cross at different times — and some don't cross at all.

The displacement equation · live values

ratio =
0.95 × $400
$10 + 0.030 × $2,000
= 5.43

Workflow presets · click to load · then adjust below

01 · Automate Now
Quote validation pass
GPO lookup, config check, reg addendum, mfg availability
02 · Sequence Next
RFP response generation
200–600pp hospital RFP, technical + commercial + regulatory
03 · Build & Defend
Contract structuring
Customer-specific terms, service tier, capital lease alternatives
04 · Protect & Invest
Strategic account planning
Multi-year IDN strategy, KOL plan, competitive positioning

Variables · 2026 baseline · time evolution applied to chart

Intelligence fidelity 0.95

How reliably the AI produces the correct output. Rises ~0.015/yr toward 0.99 ceiling. Anchored to DocPuzzle / LongBench v2 benchmarks for task-specific fidelity.

Human baseline cost $400

Fully-loaded SE + deal desk + counsel cost per workflow execution. Anchored to Consensus 2025 SE Compensation Report ($220–280/hr enterprise blended). Rises 4%/yr.

AI execution cost (2026) $10

Total inference + platform per workflow execution. Falls 10× every 15 months on chart, per Token Efficiency Framework panel 2.

Error rate 0.030

Probability of a wrong output. Falls proportionally as fidelity rises, with a workflow-specific floor. Calibrated by task complexity.

Error cost (per failure) $2,000

Consequence of being wrong: rework, lost deal, regulatory exposure. Workflow-specific. Held constant on the chart — this is the variable that doesn't decay, and the one that determines whether the curve ever crosses 1.0.

Current ratio (2026)
5.43
Above 1.0 — displaceable today
Crossing year
2025
Year displacement ratio crosses 1.0
Posture recommendation
Automate Now
0–6 month ROIC horizon

Displacement ratio · 2024–2030 · log scale

What's binding · sensitivity analysis

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Calibration sources: Sales engineer / deal desk fully-loaded rates from Consensus 2025 Sales Engineering Compensation Report (median SE base $140K, OTE $160–230K, 1.4–1.7× fully-loaded multiplier yields $220–280/hr enterprise blended). AI error rate ranges from DocPuzzle (Feb 2025), LongBench v2, and HELM long-context evaluations — calibrated by task complexity (1–3% structured lookup, 5–12% document synthesis, 10–20% high-judgment). Task time estimates from industry sales operations practice; per-customer baselines recommended for production deployment. Three-curve scaling assumptions from Token Efficiency Framework: AI cost decay 10× / 15 months, fidelity rise 0.015/yr, human cost rise 4%/yr.

Gary Rikard, MBA · Workflow Economics · The 2026 Crossing · Companion to the Token Efficiency Framework · LinkedIn: garyrikard · Math: ratio = (fidelity × human cost) / (AI cost + error rate × error cost) · Presets are illustrative; calibrate to your operations data for client-specific deployment · #WorkflowEconomics #EnterpriseAI #Medtech